I can point to ComScore, IDC and NPD estimates showing Windows Phone flat or declining in recent months. What do you have?

I’ll agree that Apple should strive for licensing (aside from obvious attempts to get trade secrets), but Microsoft’s attitude is what bugs me. It’s *not* about a sincere desire to be compensated for its work. It’s the same attitude that led the company to push Linux OS and PC developers into patent licensing after the Novell deal: it’s such an overly wide, indiscriminate approach that it’s pretty clear the strategy is only about punishing companies for not being Microsoft-exclusive. Microsoft makes a lot more money from Android licenses than Windows Phone does, at last check. That’s not right.

As far as WP and BB being flat or declining… you’re right about BB. Declining. Have been for a while. WP on the other hand, is not. And it’s still new. WP WILL be the competitor to worry about, especially once WP, Xbox and Windows 8 all integrate together.

And Microsoft pushing Android OEMs into licensing deals… that’s what Apple SHOULD have been doing this whole time, instead of trying to get everything Android completely banned. Microsoft is using smart business strategy instead of being vindictive. I don’t blame them, nor should Google/Android be afraid of it. That’s normal business practice, and licensing agreements don’t put companies under ground. They help innovation instead of hindering it.

Also, you should never, ever make assumptions that history will always repeat; you’ll see similarities, but never direct repetition. When Jobs left the first time around, the Mac was Apple’s only business, and the management had no concepts of model line simplicity and competitive (not necessarily low, but competitive) pricing. Today, Apple is one of the most successful companies in the world with four main businesses and execs that are famous for good management. If any decline happens, it’ll be gradual or come much later.

Android is awesome, but you shouldn’t let an Anything But Apple mentality overrule your rational side. Windows Phone and the BlackBerry are currently flat or declining… and besides, Microsoft is the one pushing every Android maker into licensing deals over patent claims that they’re not even allowed to see unless they sign an NDA. Do you really want that to be Google’s main competition?

Apple and/or iOS COULD go down, and it would not be the end of competition in mobile. I, for one, am waiting for it to happen. As indicated by the OP, it has happened before, when Steve Jobs stepped down, and it will happen again now that Steve is dead.

I’m not an Apple fan, I haven’t owned an Apple product since my Apple II. Everyone in this industry builds off each other. To pick and choose prior art and yell about who stole from who is ridiculous. Give credit on the final results. Apple did revolutionize the smart phone (and not just with hardware and software, but with marketing and business models). They took that success and revolutionized (or “innovated” which is what we’re debating – more like resurrected) the tablet space.

Apple likes to pretend (and litigate) like this isn’t the case. That is where Apple deserves criticism. That along with their closed systems (which is a good and bad thing). But you can’t deny their importance.

Here’s another clip of the pirates of silicon valley or stealing ideas:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=CBri-xgYvHQ#t=80s

Note: I haven’t run the stock Jelly bean yet.

Eric, the one thing I see Google really needing to do to ensure Android dominance is to play a far stronger role in ensuring that vendors and carriers commit to offering Android OS updates for two years from the time a phone is released on the market; basically, the time a phone is actually on contract in the US.

Letting this go means that vendors and carriers can let updates slide on phones that are released as flagship devices, then stagnate for long periods, and sours an experience that otherwise would give Apple little to tout over the Android OS.