Those are just simple examples that may or may not be applicable to a large portion of the budget tablet market, but they are at least possible and not unreasonable, I think.

Thanks for the good discussion.

In terms of market share, you’re absolutely right. Both in the US and abroad Android is dominating iOS. That said, I don’t think it’s a niche product. Windows Phone is a niche product. There are still plenty of people who don’t know what Windows Phone is. Windows Phone has almost no impact on the market. iOS, on the other hand, continues to influence Android and Android continues to influence iOS (not only in features between the platforms, but also design, apps, multimedia, etc.). It may turn out that iOS becomes a niche product in the long run (much like Mac OS and Windows), but at this point we’re still in the early years of the war for this platform.

You’re right about Windows Phone hardware to some degree, although since Microsoft controls the chipset, etc. that leaves things like speaker and cameras left to OEMs. That limits the amount of innovation, but the camera on the Lumia 920 looks better than any camera I’ve seen on another smartphone.

I agree that just because there is room for the Fire and Nexus, it doesn’t mean both will succeed. I don’t think the sales of one will impact the sales of the other greatly because they have carved up the low-price market, with Amazon targeting the people who like Kindles/Amazon and watch videos and Google going after people who want an all-around tablet. Pretty difficult for me to say what over the long term is going to be the bigger segment, but you can’t deny the Kindle’s relative success so far.

My comment on the iPhone being niche is purely from the marketshare numbers and trends, where iOS is <20% and falling. This reminds me greatly of the Windows/MacOS situation and I think most would consider Macs a niche product at that time, that nonetheless were able to move significant units of individual models. In a huge market like home computers or phones impressive unit sales are misleading.

One interesting thing about the Windows phone space is that since no competition is allowed on the software side, the manufacturers are desperately tying to come up with hardware differentiation. This could really push things like cameras in phones forward.

If you don’t think the Nexus 7 and the Kindle Fire are competing directly against each other, who are they competing with? What other tablet in the 7 inch range is doing well? You admit yourself that they aren’t competing with the iPad (although technically the Kindle Fire is the only tablet competing with the iPad in terms of market share). Just because there is room for both the Nexus 7 and the Kindle Fire (which I agree with) doesn’t mean Google and Amazon aren’t competing directly and certainly doesn’t mean both will succeed.

Also, I don’t know where you got the idea that the iPhone is a niche device. The iPhone 5 sold 2 million devices in the first 24 hours. That’s not niche.

HTC made a huge play with the 8X and 8S. They’re going head to head with Nokia, who has been Microsoft’s main partner in getting Windows Phone into the market. Microsoft calling HTC’s 8X and 8S the signature devices of Windows Phone (like a Nexus device) is a clear message that HTC is trying to push Nokia out of the spotlight. While Samsung has been dominating Android sales, no one has been able to get Windows Phone into the market in a significant way. I’m not saying HTC is bowing out of Android right away, but when was the last time HTC had a hit Android device? The Evo? The Incredible? Both were years ago and both were stuck on one carrier. If HTC can get their Windows Phone devices on every carrier and convince people to buy them that might be their way to success. It will be much easier for them to compete with Nokia than with Samsung, too. Like I said, it’s definitely not a for sure thing – anything can happen. I just think that’s what the market looks like right now.